Thoughts on Burnley Mik's post+sng's
Rather than fill Burnley Mik's
comment box with my late night rambling reply to his latest post, I thought I'd stick it here.You can tell me where else to stick it in the comments box. Call it a bonus post or call it Jeremy.I don't mind. Obviously I'm writing mainly from a low( $33 and below) sit n go players angle rather than cash.And yeah I noticed that BM's article was based on cash just before posting this..
Focussing on short-term results is just human nature and hard to fight.The same as positive confirmation bias.Surely we've all called out the villains one outer in our heads just before it hits on the river? On a bad run,or if you're me or you it seems possible on almost every hand.Of course that's our psychic secret.Those happy go lucky bigstack donks at every table aren't blessed with our abilities, that's for sure...
Of course it is possible to be one-outered on every hand which is what helps make poker such a tough game.We also look for patterns and logic/reason when there's only the next card.
I keep wanting to blank out the lobby on Party to avoid looking at my balance between games, but I still like to know where I stand.In the back of my mind I also worry that I'm more likely to tilt if I'm not constantly aware of my "real money" balance.( if that makes sense)
I suppose it forces me to look harder at my game and be honest with myself over my frame of mind too.If I do that and I know it's just one of those constant nasty streaks that are totally standard for turbo sngs, I can keep to my A game,ride it out, and make a decent profit overall.
I'm so used to runs of 9-10 sngs without cashing ( over thousands of games ) that it doesn't bother me to see my balance drop by a couple of hundred.Over 10 buy-ins down and I'm usually pissed at all the beats and lost flips.Again that's just human nature and I can't help that feeling.It's how you deal with it that matters and hopefully if I don't get sharked playing higher,I can certainly up my "gulp limit" over time.
I think you also have to have the confidence to know that it only takes a couple of wins to turn a bad session into a "lose small" one,which in itself can be seen a success.A seemingly rare hot streak may see a whole sessions result change over the space of a few games.Break even for over 50 games one night, and win a quick 2 from 3the next night during a grabbed half hour.It's the nature of the game.
On reflection even most of this post so far has been about negative variance.Did I mention positive confirmation bais...Anyway,with a positive roi over a decent sample ( at least 1000+ games)there should still be plenty of sessions where you come out a ton of buy-ins ahead.Great when it happens, and disheartening when you feel you're playing well and you hit a wall of beats/lost flips again and again.It's always worth remembering that a 10% roi at $15 games is only $1.50 per game profit,the beats are standard and only playing your "A" game + volume will bring long term profit.
For me,if I hit a 15-20 buy-in downswing,which thankfully doesn't happen as often as I think,I can still go to bed and not dwell on it, although I will go over the session in Pokertracker before my next game.I actually find it reassuring when I see repeated bad beats and coolers.I can still look for spots where I possibly stacked off too lightly or missed a shove, but I prefer seeing bad luck rather than a ton of mistakes.
I can also genuinely laugh at my own bad luck when reviewing an ugly session the next day.It is a cruel game sometimes.I have no interest in Mr "I Called with K2 and busted your Aces", other than being safe in the knowledge that as long as donks are willing to stack off with rags, every game won't see 9 evenly stacked players at level 7 blinds.You may not have taken a bad beat yet in the lev 7 blind game, but your edge is diminishing rapidly with each hand.You're forced to push and call lighter just to stay ahead of the blinds and retain fold equity.
Don't get shortstacked and blinded off you say? Not so easy when card dead with 8 other players around to shove all in before or after you.I may get upset sometimes with my own bad luck at being outdrawn in a big pot,however I'm never angry at the lucky,jammy,donk tard,fishy fucker.The reality is of course that our Aces hold v his raggy King more often than not.He won't be a winning player overall.His hobby costs him money that you're directly or indirectly taking, so he's welcome to his day in the sun if he's getting lucky against me in a game or two.
On the rare occasion I monkey tilt spew off a few buy-ins, I'm aware enough to simply stop playing for the night.I also cut short my next session when I do play if I still don't feel mentally strong enough to play my usual winning game*.I'll go and do something else and come back to the game again another day.It's an easy option when it's only a hobby.
* As of writing at least.I know it would be far more interesting then this pish, but hopefully there's no "The Party donks ate my roll" post after I go mad at $1k sngs.It's scary that I've even just thought about how to blow it.Damn blog.
Perhaps my thinking is too short-term and that's a failing of mine that also prevents me from moving up a bit in stakes and testing my own gulp limit.To take it to the extreme, ( why not,it's late!)I just can't even imagine how hard Tom Dwan gulped,regardless of his overall wealth, after losing $6.7 million to Isildur1 back in Nov '09.Did he awake the next morning and bound down the street thinking to himself, "Hey the sun's out,I'm still going for my Happy Meal"? Maybe he was looking at strangers thinking, "they don't know I..JUST LOST $6.7 MILLION FUCKIN' DOLLARS".I reckon it was the former and he's probably still playing with the toy as he rebuilds his roll.
I could also go into full witter mode about how the top players have more controlled gamble about them.I certainly admire the sng pro's who wouldn't blink too hard at a 40-50 buy-in downswing over a short period of time.That's the kind of gulp limit I want to have!
Ok, that's enough herbally induced, late night spraffing of bollocks for now...