Saturday, January 05, 2008

Bloggerment 42...

Happy New Year to all.Time to shake off the blogging rust and get back to it eh!
As per the banner, ( feel free to steal) Bloggerment 42 is now open under the "private tourney" tab at Pokerstars.Hmm I forgot to mention the game is on Sun 6th!Looking forward to the usual friendly chat and banter....

My New Year has revolved around family,friends,poker,football and late night/early morning IM chats.I've no idea how I'm going to get up for work on Monday morning as my bodyclock has got used to me going to bed at 5am and getting up around 2-ish.I even needed to hit the snooze button three times today to get up just after 1pm for the football.I'm glad I did though, as the Gers won 2-0 and we are now sitting at the top of the league with a game in hand over our rivals.

To the poker and it's felt a bit strange taking a blogging break when I've probably played more poker than ever before over the last couple of weeks.152 games over the last week,most of them my favourite $16,18 player turbos at Pokerstars.They say poker is an easy way to make a hard living and though it's not my main income,the phrase strikes me as being deadly accurate.

What could be easier than being able to get your money in the pot when statistically ahead on an almost continual basis? What could be tougher than dealing with one beat after another when those statistical probabilities seemingly fail to deliver from one game to the next.

Edit: On rereading it may look like I'm trying to make exuses for a losing week.It wasn't too bad actually! zagga 152 $2 $12 20% $273

The answer I think is to keep in mind that poker deals in tiny edges overall.You are not favourite to win five 80/20 ( say AA V 22) confrontations in a row.The muppet who called with 89 off against your AK will actually win nearly 4 times out of ten.Not 5 % of the time.Not even 10%, but nearly 40%.Over the long term your AK still has a huge edge, but on a game to game basis ,losing there is not a bad beat of any kind.

Of course this short-termism is probably what helps keep the fish at the tables and why any amateur can beat a pro on any given day if the cards fall his/her way.

Back to small edges.Here are the stats from probably the best Turbo player around at the moment:
Total games Ave profit per game Ave stake Roi Total Profit
spacegravy 29,052 $3 $38 12% $87,873 -

Now at $38 level ( his average stake) the prizes are 1st) $252 2nd) $189 3rd) $126 4th)$63 and yet the best player out there is only making $3 per game.This is because he gets the same bad beats/long runs without cashing that everyone goes through when playing turbos.There is no magic wand.Making money is never easy.You are not especially unlucky!

Now granted spacegravy has played more games than probably anyone, but does anyone think he was put off by going 0/8 games without cashing a mere ninety four times? Did he stop and question himself and his game after going 0/17 without cashing just the four times? My guess is he has enough confidence in his game to just load up some more sngs without worrying in the slightest.

My own graph is obviously over just a fraction of the number of games that spacegravy has played and shows my single runs of 12,17,21 and ( jeeez that was a nightmare) 22 games without making the money in a single sng.

My point? Hmmm does there have to be one?! I suppose it's to be resilient in the face of the repeated beats in these games.They are normal.It won't ever change, but if you keep getting your chips in the middle as favourite then profit will follow...

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At Sunday, 06 January, 2008, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Happy New Year to you mate. All the best with your goals for 2008 :)

At Sunday, 06 January, 2008, Blogger Littleacornman said...

Cheers Matty.All the best to you for 2008 too mate.


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